Goal

To increase voter participation rates among infrequent voters, particularly in low-income and ethnic communities.

Initiative Description

The initiative supports the organizing and outreach efforts of nine nonprofit organizations with proven histories of working effectively with the communities they aim to mobilize. Voter outreach is focused on low-income and ethnic communities in the San Joaquin Valley, Inland Empire and in Los Angeles and Orange counties. The organizations are employing a variety of outreach approaches, including congregation-based outreach, neighborhood-based outreach, live phone calls, voter forums, multilingual materials and information provided via ethnic and mainstream media. More background and details about this initiative is available here.

Evaluation

Irvine is funding a team of academic researchers with expertise in political participation, voter turnout and advanced statistical methods to conduct the evaluation of the California Votes Initiative. Recognizing that our funding for voter mobilization can only reach a portion of California's infrequent voters, this evaluation is focused on demonstrating to policymakers, funders and other civic organizations the best strategies for mobilizing these voters. Our dissemination is focused on sharing this information with other organizing groups. We are also informing public officials about increases in voter participation so that they better understand these politically active constituencies in California.

Objectives:

The evaluation is designed to assess the success of different approaches used to increase voter turnout among the target populations. The evaluation is analyzing the diverse outreach activities and identifying approaches that are particularly effective in specific settings and communities.

Time frame:

2005 – 2009

Participating grantees:

• Asian Pacific American Legal Center of Southern California (Los Angeles County)
• California Public Interest Research Group Education Fund (Los Angeles County)
• Center for Community Action and Environmental Justice (Riverside and San Bernardino counties)
• Central American Resource Center (CARECEN) of California (Los Angeles County)
• NALEO Educational Fund (Fresno, Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside and San Bernardino counties)
• Orange County Asian Pacific Islander Community Alliance (Orange, Riverside and San Bernardino counties)
• Pacific Institute for Community Organization (PICO)
  (San Joaquin Valley and Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside and San Bernardino counties)
• Southwest Voter Registration Education Project
  (Los Angeles, Riverside and San Bernardino counties)
• Strategic Concepts in Organizing and Policy Education
  (Los Angeles County)

Methods:

The effectiveness of grantee voter mobilization efforts is being evaluated using a combination of measures, including:

• Data culled from voter outreach records, including "walk lists," sign-up sheets or call lists from telephone banks
• Voter turnout information purchased from local registrars and merged with mobilization data to evaluate the effectiveness of the local organizations' efforts using control groups
• A public opinion survey, designed and administered by the evaluation team, to measure voter awareness and interest in the 2008 elections, as well as a variety of independent attitudinal and demographic variables that are traditionally used to predict voter turnout, such as political trust and efficacy, and socioeconomic status (income and education)
• Tracking and analysis of media coverage of program activities to assess the reach and visibility of grantee organization mobilization activities

Findings:

In the first phase of this initiative (2006–07), grantee organizations reached 82,000 voters through direct methods, such as door-to-door outreach and phone calls. An additional 100,000 voters were contacted through less direct methods, such as voter forums and messages to congregations.

The effectiveness of voter outreach varied. The more effective campaigns generally raised turnout by about 7 to 9 percentage points among those contacted. On the high end, a Riverside organization demonstrated an increase of 33 percentage points in voter participation by canvassing in a community where its staff and volunteers had a long history of outreach. Indirect methods, such as automated phone calls and mailed materials, did not demonstrate statistically significant differences in voter turnout.

The evaluation also highlighted a number of best practices for voter mobilization:

1. Campaigns should ideally use face-to-face canvassing.
2. Phone bank calling, the next most effective option after face-to-face canvassing, was particularly successful among young voters and people who had voted in a prior election.
3. Phone bank calling can be enhanced by using robotic calls to screen out non-operating numbers, and then following up with people who expressed an intention to vote.
4. Canvassers should be well-trained and drawn from the local community.
5. An information-rich message may be more effective than a basic one. Additional research will explore the implications of this new finding.
6. Canvassing more than four weeks before election day can decrease the effectiveness of a campaign.

Grantee organizations are using these findings to refine their strategies to get out the vote in 2008 elections.

Initial findings from the 2006 and 2007 voter outreach were described in the October 2007 report, New Experiments in Minority Voter Mobilization: A Report on the California Votes Initiative. Additional reports discussing findings from the 2006, 2007 and 2008 voter mobilization efforts will be published in early fall 2008 and spring 2009.

Product::

New Experiments in Minority Voter Mobilization: A Report on the California Votes Initiative (PDF)

Evaluators:

Melissa R. Michelson, Ph.D. (Principal Investigator)
Associate Professor, Department of Political Science
California State University, East Bay
Political Science
Hayward, CA 94542-3041
510.885.3582

Lisa García Bedolla, Ph.D.
Associate Professor, Departments of Political Science and Chicano/Latino Studies
University of California, Irvine
SSPB 3283
Mail Code: 5100
Irvine, CA 92697
949.824.9298

Donald Green, Ph.D.
A. Whitney Griswold Professor of Political Science
Yale University
77 Prospect St.
New Haven, CT 6520-8209
203.432.3237

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